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Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden answers a question as President Donald Trump listens during the second and final presidential debate at the Curb Event Center at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, U.S., October 22, 2020. Morry Gash/Pool via REUTERS
A series of polls conducted by the New York Times and Siena College reveal that Democratic President Joe Biden currently trails Republican frontrunner Donald Trump in five out of the six crucial battleground states, exactly one year before the U.S. election. The polls indicate that American voters have concerns regarding Biden's age and are dissatisfied with his handling of the economy.
Trump, vying for his party's 2024 nomination in an attempt to regain the presidency, is leading in the states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. In contrast, Biden maintains a lead in Wisconsin. It's noteworthy that in the 2020 election, Biden emerged victorious in all six of these states. Currently, the polls show Trump leading by an average of 48% to 44% across these six states.
Although national popular vote polls consistently depict Biden and Trump in a close race, U.S. presidential elections are often determined by the outcomes in a select few swing states. Biden's 2020 wins in these pivotal states played a pivotal role in his overall victory. To secure re-election, he would likely need to carry many of these states once again.
Predictions made more than a year in advance can evolve, as demonstrated by past elections. Biden's campaign is aware of this, emphasizing the importance of their efforts in reaching and mobilizing a diverse voter coalition. The focus is on the choice between their agenda and the positions of Trump's "Make America Great Again" Republicans.
However, the polls show signs of strain within Biden's multiracial and multigenerational coalition. Voters under the age of 30 favor the 80-year-old president by only a slim margin. Biden's lead among Hispanic voters has diminished to single digits, and his advantage in urban areas is only half of Trump's lead in rural regions.
An intriguing shift is noted among Black voters, a key demographic for Biden. These polls indicate that 22 percent of Black voters in these states support Trump, a level that modern presidential politics has not witnessed for a Republican.
Democratic U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut expressed concerns regarding the poll results, stating that no candidate is poised for a landslide victory. The Democratic Party faces a challenging path ahead as it prepares for the upcoming election.
